If you are a person that often has low turnouts for events or wheeling trips (or get-togethers or parties even), here is how you can accurately calculate how many people to realistically expect: (this is an equation I made up 3 years ago; I tried to write in in the style of a chapter out of a mathmatic textbook) Number of people attending: use the Allan equation to predict an accurate estimate under normal conditions of how many people will actually show up: Number of People invited divided in half; take 3/4 of that number; minus 10% of the original number and there’s a close estimate: So say I invited 25 people, there will be 6.88 people there under a normal occurrence. Lets test my theory this weekend. Snow Days 2003- Dec. 19-21 People invited: (only including candidates that had a slight possibility of wanting to go) Alfredo and Andrea and kids= 5 Nathan, Nayely and two friends= 4 Dillon, Corey, Sarah= 3 Joey, Nic, Bob, Scob, Donna, Amanda= 6 My neighbor Chuck, kids and John and kids= 6 Luke, Doug, Walter, Jamey, Ben= 5 Kevin and KC Reese= 2 Rob and Kathy and kids= 4 About 36 People invited divided by 2 equals 18 times 3/4 equals 13.50 minus 10% of 36 equals 9.90 people attending. So lets see if about 9 or 10 people or close to that total show up. The event of a low-level occurrence (see equation above) often occurs for unexplainable reasons. The only explanation is that a low-level occurrence took place. This is the most often occurring occurrence, and is called the Normal Occurrence. This happens most often with a larger number of people being invited and the goal is to have the most amounts of people possible. (Downriver Days 2001 with 24 people, numerous work weekends, Memorial Day and Labor Day weekends, Snow Days, Halloween) In the event of a high-level occurrence, one can take the initial number times 115% or more (over 15% more than invited). This rarely occurs. This happens when most of the people that were invited show up plus they bring friends or others that they invited, resulting in a larger number than expected. There have been few if any times this has occurred, so it is called a Rare Occurrence. This occurs usually when no specific attempt is made to have large numbers of people attending. (Downriver Days 1999 with 68 people) In the event of full attendance or within 14% of full attendance, the actual number of people who show up is within the upper or lower 14% of the number of people invited. This is called the Maximum Potential. Reaching Maximum Potential almost never occurs, but when it does, is more likely to occur when smaller numbers are initially involved. (Downriver Days 1998 with about 42 people) There is also the potential for a No-Level Occurrence. This happens when even less show up than predicted under low-level occurrence calculations. For events/trips with over 25 people initially invited, 15% or less of the initial number show up. If it is under 25, this means only 3 or fewer people attend. No-Level Occurrences happen quite frequently. Results for test listed above: Snow Days Dec. 19- (11 people showed up.) = Normal Occurence I use the Normal Occurence equation for any 4-wheeling trip we have, explaining why the Mountain Explorers are not an official club. So, does anyone else have really crappy turnouts whenever they plan something too?