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Commerical Airplane crashes. Pushing the statistical barrier

Discussion in 'The Lounge' started by jakeslim, Mar 24, 2004.

  1. jakeslim

    jakeslim 1/2 ton status

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    I have estimated (based on statistical review)that internationally, we should see 3-5 commercial airline crashes every year. Last year was an odd year, as due to
    9/11, airlines managed to reduce that to 1, maybe two. Well, I can say that this is not a time to be flying as statistics are consistant. Human error, mechanical failure and "the unspoken" are still ever present.

    I know its the safest means of transportation, but that does not change statistics.
     
  2. BlazerGuy

    BlazerGuy 3/4 ton status

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    Where did you get these "stats" /forums/images/graemlins/thinking.gif
     
  3. jakeslim

    jakeslim 1/2 ton status

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    airplanecrashes.com. I actually did the study a couple of years ago, and for the most part, we are overdue. Can't stop human nature(human error-lax attitudes etc)

    also, based on review, I NEVER FLY plane models that start with DC.....only boeing or airbus for me.
     
  4. Capman2k

    Capman2k 3/4 ton status

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    and how many hundreds of flights are there each day?
     
  5. jakeslim

    jakeslim 1/2 ton status

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    more like thousands. Flying is the safest means of transportation, but it does not change the #'s. Vegas wins because of the #'s. They don't lie.
     
  6. dyeager535

    dyeager535 1 ton status Premium Member

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    IMO statistics are almost entirely worthless. Based on the way the statistics were compiled, any conclusion can be drawn from the results...

    3-5 crashes every year eh? So if you have 3 crashes every year, 15,000 total flights in that same year, and you fly twice, what are your odds of being involved? If you fly 100 times that year, what are your odds?

    Also, what factors were not included in the study? Age of plane, make of plane, climactic conditions when crash occurred, flying hours of pilots involved, weight of cargo onboard, etc.

    Numbers don't lie, but you aren't dealing with a finite set of variables either, like you are in Vegas.

    I mean if you COULD figure out and answer every possible variable for each crash, you might find that only fully loaded planes, flying in the early morning hours, between 40* and 60* ambient air temperature, crashed, meaning if you flew when those conditions weren't present, your statistical chance of dying would be 0.

    If you fly one time in your life, your chances of being in a crash are statistically insignificant, but I guarantee that on most large planes that were full of passengers that crashed, at least 1 of those people, statistically, was not supposed to die. /forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif

    Just look at the way stats are used to skew peoples opinions during elections or in heated debates like abortion and gun control. Heck, look at how many times different foods have been bad for you, then good for you, then bad again, and so on! Thats all based on statistics as well, and we all know how reliable those have turned out to be.

    IMO only the person gathering and compiling the statistics can be happy that the results are true.

    But then again, I'm pretty cynical. Most things I want to see or experience before I believe them...even "reliable" sources can be wrong...kind of like people saying VSS wasn't used on the TBI trucks with the 465. /forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif
     
  7. jakeslim

    jakeslim 1/2 ton status

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    [ QUOTE ]
    entirely worthless

    [/ QUOTE ]


    time will tell. Sure the odds are extremely low that "you" will be in one. I am not saying that anyone here will be in one. These may be all in third world countries. Hell, we may have another 10 years without one, but probably not.
     
  8. dyeager535

    dyeager535 1 ton status Premium Member

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    I understand what you are saying...probably statisically I'm overdue for a serious car accident, I just hope I beat the odds. /forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif
     
  9. jakeslim

    jakeslim 1/2 ton status

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    yeah, me too. Never have even bumped or been bumped in many years...... /forums/images/graemlins/doah.gif/forums/images/graemlins/waytogo.gif
     
  10. pauly383

    pauly383 Daddy383 Staff Member Moderator

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    All I know about airplanes is if I am not in charge of it like my truck , I aint flying. Would be my luck that the one I'm on goes down..........while I am holding the winning powerball ticket /forums/images/graemlins/yikes.gif
     
  11. BlazerGuy

    BlazerGuy 3/4 ton status

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    All I know is that when you number comes up, there ain't a damn thing you can do about it, so why worry.... /forums/images/graemlins/grin.gif
     
  12. bigyellowjimmy

    bigyellowjimmy 1/2 ton status

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    Stats are interesting but not a prediction of the future. Regarding trading stocks we used to say, the news could be great, the chart could be wonderful, history favorable and company fundementals flawless.....so statisically what are the odds of a profitable trade? 50/50. Always 50/50. Use stats to plan but always be prepared to deal with reality. /forums/images/graemlins/thumb.gif
     
  13. jakeslim

    jakeslim 1/2 ton status

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    [ QUOTE ]
    Stats are interesting but not a prediction of the future

    [/ QUOTE ]

    here is my prediction of the future, Vegas will win in the end.
     
  14. bigyellowjimmy

    bigyellowjimmy 1/2 ton status

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    What if gambling is declared illegal, or another area of the country or world becomes "the" place to gamble...still gonna go with your stats? As soon as another variable enters the equation all bets are off.
     
  15. jakeslim

    jakeslim 1/2 ton status

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    drugs are illegal, guess no one uses them....
     
  16. bigyellowjimmy

    bigyellowjimmy 1/2 ton status

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    I was at a crime lab today and saw 16K pounds of weed.....whats your point? Im saying that Vegas is statistically favorable right now using current variables but you cant use current variables to predict the future because the future always changes beyond our knowledge, expectations or imagination. /forums/images/graemlins/thumb.gif
     
  17. jakeslim

    jakeslim 1/2 ton status

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    these are not my stats, they are history. My point was that if gambling becomes illegal, it will stll go on. We live with stats. The tv shows you watch are based on stats. Millions of cars are recalled every year to avoid, what I'm sure is available,statistical lawsuits. Planes crash. Planes will crash again. If you think there is a statistical chance they won't.....then perhaps there is a chance that they will all be grounded going forward. /forums/images/graemlins/waytogo.gif
     
  18. boggerless

    boggerless 1 ton status Premium Member

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    i remember people saying MORE PEOPLE DIE IN CARS THAN IN AIRPLANES, no sh!t???? thats probably because there ARE more cars than airplanes. thats apples and oranges. when it's time to cash in your chips there ain't sh!t you can do, you'll still be on the wrong side of the sod. /forums/images/graemlins/grin.gif /forums/images/graemlins/k5.gifto /forums/images/graemlins/truck.gif
     
  19. bigyellowjimmy

    bigyellowjimmy 1/2 ton status

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    [ QUOTE ]
    these are not my stats, they are history. My point was that if gambling becomes illegal, it will stll go on. We live with stats. The tv shows you watch are based on stats. Millions of cars are recalled every year to avoid, what I'm sure is available,statistical lawsuits. Planes crash. Planes will crash again. If you think there is a statistical chance they won't.....then perhaps there is a chance that they will all be grounded going forward.


    [/ QUOTE ]

    Yes....like you say, stats are history, they are all based on past events which is why they cannot predict the future, they make an educated guess, thats the extent of it. We use the educated guess based on history (stats) as one variable in determining policies and decisions for the future but we also know full well that just because it happened before doesnt mean it'll happen again, especially with the same timing or influence as before. Of course all vices will continue whether they are legal or not but Las Vegas would be ruined, all the casinos would be closed down and the gambling would be done via the internet or locally underground. Thats what I was saying before, if everything says the way it is now Las Vegas is a good bet, whenever things change (they always do) you gotta adapt and throw the stats out the window. Yes, stats are used a lot in marketing TV and most other things. Im saying stats have never and will never PREDICT the future, they are simply an educated guess based on historic (past) data that are accurate if the results are used short term before future variables change the equation. /forums/images/graemlins/thumb.gif
     
  20. jakeslim

    jakeslim 1/2 ton status

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    always a pleasure /forums/images/graemlins/waytogo.gif /forums/images/graemlins/peace.gif
     

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