Been there, fixed that.
Bought a brand new F150 in 1979. Had a small persistent leak where the axle tube went into the housing on the 9 inch. Wasn't even enough to drip, just a wet spot.
Under warranty, so it went back to the dealer.
They said it was a known factory defect, and they had a procedure to fix it.
It took them three tries, but finally no more seep.
About three hard years later, I was under it checking on something, and saw that the axle tube was almost all the way out of the housing. Much farther than yours. I put two jackstands under the two pieces just in case, and investigated.
I discovered the "fix" the dealer had done was massive amounts of black silicone rubber to stop the leak. There was a large factory weld, but all except for about a one inch section was on the housing and had not touched the tube.
That one inch section had finally broken and let the tube slide out.
I jacked it up on the chunk, put a stand under the tube, and slowly let it down until the tube was lightly resting on the stand and the tire was off the ground.
Put a chunk of wood on the hub, and drove the tube back with a sledgehammer. Did not take much. It was only a snug fit and was well greased. Hooked a piece of chain from one spring mount to the other and drove carefully to a local machine shop I knew.
Since the Ford 9 inch is setup externally, we just pulled the axles, and took the entire third member out. The leaf springs had not let the axle tube rotate, as was verified by the two pieces of weld fitting back together.
We took a cutting torch, and "washed" off some of the old weld, and then rewelded it correctly. We added a section of tubing under the existing weld going from the housing to the tube welded in place just in case.
The main reason for puling the third member, was because after the tube fix, we welded a piece of 1/2 inch plate on the bottom of the housing, drilled a hole through both it and the housing, and threaded it with a pipe thread.
An Allen socket pipe plug finished that, and gave me a drain hole at long last.
In your case, I would do one of two things. One: pull that axle, unbolt the tube from the spring, and slide it the rest of the way out. You can mark it or not. You should see the marks where the plug welds marked the tube but did not stick.
Then drill the plug welds out of the housing. slide the tube back in until you see the marks through the holes. Then plug weld it correctly.
Two: Drive it back in, and do a continuous weld around the junction of the tube to the housing.
If you don't let it get too hot, in other words, weld a while then let it cool, you should be able to get by with just an oil change to get rid of any burned oil.
Like I say, the springs should not let it rotate much if any at all. Jack it up and support both the chunk and the tube to eliminate any droop, and you should be fine
It looks like a worse job than it is.