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Have you seen the horrendous Korean crap they slap a bowtie on in Europe??

... I'd really recommend getting a job in the railroad business :D. I think these companies are getting stong again. I recently read an article in a business newspaper that Union Pacific and Canadian Pacific receieved record-breaking results in rail cargo as it is getting more and more expensive to use trucks for hauling freight.
 
Yes, but the problem that I have seen with rail is that they will not guarantee a delivery date and time. This can cause problems with companies that need supplies delivered on tight schedules. Many manufacturing companies using magnesium and aluminum will not stock large amounts of product, but instead rely on trucks to make sure the product arrives within a couple of hours of when they will be running out of that material.
 
@lectric80:
yep, that's a problem in deed! Maybe companies have to abolish parts of their just-in-time management and the railroad companies have to get more flexible. I think there are enormous possiblilities in the railroad sector in future.

@jms:
great, where are you going? Hope it's not connected to work or so ;-)
 
Wow, well Waldkirchen really is not far from me! But you'll visiting her in a Smart .... :D:D:D:D :doah:

btw:
are you a German who now is living in the U.S. or (what might be quite improbable) did your mother emigrate to the Bavarian Forest :D ?
 
It is good to hear the actual perspective of people in Germany instead of speculating. :D
 
lectric80 said:
However, many people are already feeling the crunch of the gas prices at $4 a gallon, and a very large percentage of the country will not be able to afford $6. When it hits that point
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American's will be forced to change their lifestyle. Driving 50 miles one way to work will no longer be a viable choice for most, if it isn't already...increased, actually desirable urban living and faster, more plentiful mass transit will be the norm. Our lifestyle put us where we are, a change to that is the only currently (and for the forseeable future) available solution that is workable.

NOTHING can be brought to market fast enough in a large enough quantity to make a dent in our fuel prices. Not drilling in ANWR, not ethanol, not hydrogen, not nuclear.
 
dyeager535 said:
Americans will be forced to change their lifestyle. Driving 50 miles one way to work will no longer be a viable choice for most, if it isn't already...increased, actually desirable urban living and faster, more plentiful mass transit will be the norm. Our lifestyle put us where we are, a change to that is the only currently (and for the forseeable future) available solution that is workable.

NOTHING can be brought to market fast enough in a large enough quantity to make a dent in our fuel prices. Not drilling in ANWR, not ethanol, not hydrogen, not nuclear.
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Yep, this hits the nail on the head. I claim no visionary ability, it was just pure dumb luck, but 10 years ago I bought an old 1950's era brick home near campus (middle of the city here) that's 3 miles from my office. I don't make much money, but I could still afford to drive a V8 to work at $5, $6, $7 a gallon and when it gets too bad, I can bicycle or take the bus pretty easily (and already do, on rare occasion). I paid nearly as much for my 50-year-old house as friends of mine who were buying brand new houses in suburbs 30 miles away, but I'm sure happy now!

That's the sort of shift in living that will start to happen.... with the housing market mess it's already happening in places like So Cal where the "bedroom communities" farthest out from LA are seeing the biggest drops in property values and most foreclosures. People who could barely afford the house they bought discover they really can't afford it when it's combined with a 80 mile one way commute at $4.00 a gallon.
 
Wow, fuel has gone up a ton everywhere I guess. I was in Germany for work in 2001 and had to fill up the rental Mercedes ( :D ) This was pre-Euro. Gasoline was 1.99 DM per litre then...which I thought was expensive. It was roughly double what we were then paying in Canada.

Looks like it's doubled and then some in Germany...

Rene
 
dyeager535 said:
American's will be forced to change their lifestyle. Driving 50 miles one way to work will no longer be a viable choice for most, if it isn't already...increased, actually desirable urban living and faster, more plentiful mass transit will be the norm. Our lifestyle put us where we are, a change to that is the only currently (and for the forseeable future) available solution that is workable.

NOTHING can be brought to market fast enough in a large enough quantity to make a dent in our fuel prices. Not drilling in ANWR, not ethanol, not hydrogen, not nuclear.
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Yes some will do that, but it isn't possible to move everyone into a city, talk about urban sprawl. I live in an area that allows me to easily afford a 40 mile a day commute, because I pay far less than I would here in SLC. If I was to move here, even just renting, the price is so much higher than what I pay in Tooele, I end up not saving any extra money.

And that is without thinking about the nearly 10k people commuting into SLC everyday, all with 30+ mile commutes each way. Since the people commuting are generally not bringing their families, and I live in a state that tends to have lots of kids, this would mean thousands of new places would have to be built to accomodate everyone wanting a short commute to save money. Not feasable, in my opinion, to do something like this, especially in the rural west. Now if gas prices got high enough, I could a) move to SLC or b) find a job that pays less and is local to Tooele. Either option would then be preferable to losing money, but gas would have to be near $8 a gallon before the savings would kick in. And that is based on what I make now, if it takes a year or more to hit that, then the magic number continues to rise as I and my wife make more money.
 
lectric80 said:
Yes some will do that, but it isn't possible to move everyone into a city, talk about urban sprawl. I live in an area that allows me to easily afford a 40 mile a day commute, because I pay far less than I would here in SLC. If I was to move here, even just renting, the price is so much higher than what I pay in Tooele, I end up not saving any extra money.
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You aren't going to get everyone into the cities, understood. Farmers should be in farmland. Moving to former farmland (that we will need more of) to get cheap land is going to bite us in the ass as a country sooner or later. Of course, "wasteland" is a different story

When gas hits around $5/gallon, an average 50 mile commute (one way) will cost probably $400 a month. That would buy a lot more living.

Urban sprawl IS driving 40 miles to work. I don't know what your area is like, but I know how mine is. People have moved further and further out to get cheaper houses, and that commute takes them easily 1 hour+ each way (if they are lucky) plus the cost of gas.

We don't have enough rental space in Seattle. Desirable apartments would make a huge difference. Cut down on sprawl, fuel consumption, traffic, time spent driving, etc.
 
All good points and there's no magic answer to the problem of course. As to urban sprawl though, the idea is not to bring in the people who are truly rural, it's to halt the growth of suburbs by bringing people back into under-utilized areas that are already within the city. They're "undesirable" for whatever reason (crime, schools, demographics, whatever) now, but as the price of commuting grows higher, it's going to drive gentrification of these city areas (for better or worse...there are serious downsides to this) and people are going to buy a renovated and retrofitted house in an older neighborhood 5 or 10 miles from work rather than a new stucco tract home 40 miles from work.

Drive through the middle of any large city and you'll see dozens of blocks of vacant buildings and empty lots. Yeah, no one wants to live there now, but when a 2 mile drive (or a walk!) to work becomes a valuable enough commodity, people will find a way to make those areas viable again.

I took this discussion way beyond the price of gas though, and WAY beyond the relative merits of a Korean car with a bow tie on it, so I'll get off my soap box now with apologies :) /rant
 
I dont think people will move back to the cities to live in an apartment. They will just down size their vehicles to more fuel efficient cars. Its not hard to double your fuel milage by getting rid of your old dinosaur SUV or truck. By buying a more fuel efficient vehicle. Personally I would do whatever it took, to to keep from living in a city. If it means dunping my 4x4 or SUV DD for a more efficient vehicle. Then so be it.
2010 will see some real inovation come to market. With the stricter emission laws going in effect then. Auto makers are retooling their plants for vehicles to meet the stricter emission/ fuel milage standards.
The Hybrid/gas vehicles out today are just a stop gap measure. By 2010 you will see many vehicles that get 40+ MPG.
2010 will see more and more fuel cell/battery/electric vehicles.
Honda is bringing to market in California a fuel cell /L ion battery car this summer. They will expand production as Hydrogen becomes more widespread.
Honda is also developing an entire energy station for your home which will supply hydrogen for your car. Plus power for your home, using solar, natural gas, and water,
Honda already has developed a natural gas filling station for your home to fill their Natural gas powered Civic.
The new status symbols will be Lean and Green. The Esclade and other high end SUVs will go the way of the big Coupe de Villes, New Yorkers, and Park Avenues.
I hope the "Big Three" dont follow as well.
 
Instead of moving people into the city, why not move the jobs? There is no reason that so many of the jobs need to be "downtown". I think companies in industries where it is hard to find enough qualified workers are going to move to the suburbs. Having your job in an area where regular people actually want to, and can afford to, live would be a huge recruiting tool. Of course that requires low unemployment to work. Low unemployment is not likely to come from higher gas prices. :(
 
People eventually get sick and tired of wasting 2+ hours of their day (and now $20 of gas money) to work 8 hours. It becomes a quality of life issue. I realize that this depends on your area, but the worse sprawl is, the worse traffic is.

The solution to this, that fuel prices may drive us to, is denser urban areas, with little in between. It doesn't have to be about big cities, it's about smaller cities that you can walk to your doctor, train/bus station, work, etc. from your living "area". Much in Europe has been there forever. What I think you'll see is that as disposable income wanes for us, desire for a lot of space per person will decrease. It won't for everyone, but higher gas prices will drive desire for owning fuel guzzling toys down, those "toys" (our hobby) is the reason *I* need so much space. :)

I still think it all hinges on the price of fuel. Reduce consumption, or prices will continue to increase while our quality of living decreases. Those that complain about gas prices now are the ones that will feel the brunt of the pain, since they are typically ones that have a hard time affording it now!
 
Wow, alot has been said here, I'm not sure where I could add...

I'll try. In South Africa (ZA for short), where, by the way, has lots-o-room, people still live in tight-knit communities, and many people walk to work, even though their town is in the middle of nowhere. Well, it's a combination of both, ZA used to have money back in the 40's-60's, essentially before aparthied, and people wanted to live on "their own land." Well, with apartheid and the trade embargo's that resulted, the economy collapsed, prices rose, and people had economized. Now, any new house or subdivision or business is built as space utilising as possible. In some of the places I lived, I could walk 10 minutes to all the services I needed for basic living, from groceries to the dry cleaners. I had to drive to work, though, as usually it was 20-30 km's away.

America has been so rich and so "consumery" that we've bought and built and drove ourselves into a really tight spot. We enjoy a way of life that 95% of the poplulation can only dream of, nevermind live. I wanna drive my big, hungry, leather-lined SUV across the country, OK, no problem! Used to be that it took a little budgeting, but even blue collar employees could do that regularly (granted not always in a LT Suburban) To survive and thrive, we're going to have to make changes, and it's going to hurt, but it'll happen. There are people that will stick their head in the sand, but one day it will stick them in the arse. People elsewhere take a small camper trailer behind the family Golf wagon, no bull.

Personally, I'm stuck with my Yukon, mostly because I can't sell it for even a small hit, the dealer won't even consider it. And, if my math serves me right, it's still cheaper then taking the hit and buying an older economical car. There's just no way I can do it. When I bought it, I had the original plan to have it just for the weekends, and so far I'm doing well with that plan. However, for the parents SHTF plan, I keep enough money to get me home and have a full tank there. That gets to be more everyday...

I've gone on long enough I think.
 
also believe I will see the rationing of fuel in my lifetime. Imagine if you were limited to only 10 gallons of gas a week, or even a month, per household.
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If your 36, then you have already seen this back in the 70s (at least in CA). Remember only being allowed to go to the gas station on tuesdays if your license plate ended with an odd number? Remember the guys waiting in line with lawn mowers? You can guess around what time locking gas caps became really popular.
 
dyeager535 said:
You aren't going to get everyone into the cities, understood. Farmers should be in farmland. Moving to former farmland (that we will need more of) to get cheap land is going to bite us in the ass as a country sooner or later. Of course, "wasteland" is a different story

When gas hits around $5/gallon, an average 50 mile commute (one way) will cost probably $400 a month. That would buy a lot more living.

Urban sprawl IS driving 40 miles to work. I don't know what your area is like, but I know how mine is. People have moved further and further out to get cheaper houses, and that commute takes them easily 1 hour+ each way (if they are lucky) plus the cost of gas.

We don't have enough rental space in Seattle. Desirable apartments would make a huge difference. Cut down on sprawl, fuel consumption, traffic, time spent driving, etc.
Click to expand...
I must admit my area is quite different from the way I picture Seattle. And my drive is through a lot of areas where the growth will never occur. Either wetlands, the salt beaches, or huge alkaline flats that we can't supply with enough clean water to develop. Miller Motorsports park has had to put in a 10 or 15 mile pipeline for water, becaue they couldn't use the water where the track was built. It doesn't appear to be affecting Nascars decision to bring a race here, but it isn't going to ever be an urban sprawl like driving into the SL valley is.

A very large portion of Utah is open lands, and many places have severe caps on the speeds of broadband, this would hamper businesses moving to cheaper areas. Something like my office could never go out to Tooele county, simply because there is not an option for the kind of bandwidth we need to operate. By the same token, they can't just hire someone off the street to replace me, since I have years of experience with this company, and know all the systems inside and out.
 
Sprawl can happen ANYWHERE. I mean look at Las Vegas...does the desert really have the resources (mainly water) to support the kind of growth that they were experiencing before the housing market fall? And seriously, what did Vegas have to garner that kind of growth? (Did see an interesting comment though...it uses less energy to air condition a house in 100* weather than it does to heat a house in 30* weather.)

All it takes is the allure of A)money, by developers and businesses, and B)everyday folks who want to save a buck.

The Seattle area is probably pretty bad compared to many areas, but if all it takes to save tons of money is to move out of the city, businesses do it, and potential employees follow. It's an unending cycle until you run out of land.

I drive a 30 minute stretch of freeway to work. Every single inch of that drive was farmland short of the road and a few houses less than 30 years ago. Now there is none left, all sprawl. Warehouses and apartments. There isn't a place to wheel or shoot publicly within 50 miles of my house, it used to be 15.
 
Yeah, for now I can still walk across the gully behind my parents house and shoot away all afternoon. But my dad is on the Board of Development in Grant County, and several contractors are bidding on that land to put houses, while old ones sit in town, empty. It makie no sensie:dunno:
 
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