I searched on the internet for how to tell if your carrier bearing is going bad and this is what i found and exactly pretty much wht I am feeling.
"You will get vibration when slowing down with you foot off the pedal or coasting if the carrier bearing is going bad, while accelerating it won't vibrate since there is a load on it. I had mine go bad on me and I asked the service manager a million questions about how and why and it killed some time on our test ride. I had quite a bit of play in mine too and he said that they all have a little play in them after using the truck and it's hard to tell that way but the vibration never lies."---random person i dont know.
So i think that is it, SO would you say its hard to replace myslf, i have never done any work in the diff, myself.